Case Study I – Forecasting

Overview:

Plato Specialty Chemical Co. decided to expand its portfolio by acquiring Chemco in Middlebury, CT and Aristo in Cary, NC. The effort to bring the two companies together was disastrous as the two companies operated in totally different ways. The following describes how forecasting was done at both locations.

Aristo:

A tool called Galt was used by the marketing managers to aggregate input from the sales force. A detailed spreadsheet was prepared from this information with formulas to track the distribution channels on-hand inventory as well as each customer’s individual forecast. The two streams of data were merged. The cumulative information was rolled up and imported into the spreadsheet that the supply chain uses for planning. The forecast is then reviewed with the marketing managers and supply chain staff.

Chemco:

Microsoft Excel with TM1 bolt-on application was the tool used to aggregate input from the sales force. It also pulled in current on-hand inventory. The Demand Manager was responsible for collecting the sales input and updating the forecast database in
TM1. The sales forecast was updated once per month on a rolling 12-month

basis. The sales force provided their updated forecast by the end of the first week of the month. A demand meeting was held the second week of the month with the Demand Manager responsible for facilitating and distributing documents needed at the meeting. The Sales Managers, Marketing Managers, field sales force, and Supply Planners attend. The Supply Managers have “read only” access to the TM1 database and update their production plans using the forecast The approved forecast is released to the Supply Managers the day after the demand meeting.

Additional Info:

Please note that this is a seasonal market. The first quarter of the year is the busiest as agricultural chemicals must be formulated and shipped to distributors in time for the farmers to put it on their crops and not miss the season. The forecast can change daily as demand is affected by factors such as too much rain, too little rain, a sudden infestation of certain insects, etc.

Instructions:

This week’s assignment is to analyze the two methods of forecasting used above by two companies being merged together. Based upon text and readings, please illustrate which method would be most efficient whether it be Aristo or Chemco, a combination of both, or a completely different method. If you feel there is information missing, please feel free to improvise.

The following questions should be addressed:

1. Doyoufeelthattheforecastingprocedurebeingdonebybothcompaniesis effective?
2. Is the forecasting adequate for a seasonal business?
3. Are the correct individuals being brought into the forecasting process?
4. Isthecollectionandpreparationofdataadequate?

Write a 3-5 paper describing best method to move forward with after analyzing the procedures used by both companies. Feel free to either pick one or the other, disregard both procedures, or come up with a revised forecasting strategy altogether.

Please provide two other sources of reference supporting your answer other than those suggested in the course outline.

Requirement

Your paper should be 3-5 pages in length not including reference page.

Follow APA Guidelines per the Guidelines posted in the Course Introduction.

Include a reference page.