support@essaywritingexpert.orgNMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for December 2023 Examination
Assignment Marks: 30
Instructions:
All Questions carry equal marks.
All Questions are compulsory
All answers to be explained in not more than 1000 words for question 1 and 2 and for question
3 in not more than 500 words for each subsection. Use relevant examples, illustrations as far
as possible.
All answers to be written individually. Discussion and group work is not advisable.
Students are free to refer to any books/reference material/website/internet for attempting
their assignments, but are not allowed to copy the matter as it is from the source of reference. Students should write the assignment in their own words. Copying of assignments from other
students is not allowed. Students should follow the following parameter for answering the assignment
questions.
Q1. Draw the decision tree diagram and explain the best possible decision based on EMVs
(expected Monetary Values)
On the 1st April 2023, Rajinder Saproo, an investor is in a dilemma for the investment of 10
lakh INR. He has consulted his Mumbai based friend, MukulBhai Gadhecha, an investment
expert for this matter. Mr Saproo went to meet him at his office located at Prabhadevi.
Mukulbhai asked him to express his feeling for the market situation in coming economic year.
For Numerical Answer
Assessment Parameter Weightage
Understanding and usage of
the formula
20%
Procedure / Steps 60%
Correct Answer &
Interpretation
20%
For Theoretical Answer
Assessment Parameter Weightage
Introduction 20%
Concepts and Application
related to the question
60%
Conclusion 20%
NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for December 2023 Examination
Mr Saproo assumed the economic growth for the coming year in the following way.
10 % optimist for the ‘Good Economic Growth’
50 % optimist for the ‘Moderate Economic Growth’
40 % optimist for the ‘Lower Economic Growth’.
In addition to this, MuKulbhai Gadhecha carried out his analysis to derive possible payoff
values considering the various investment options as per the economic situations (presented in
the table given below). Figures are in INR on the investment of whole amount of 10 lakhs.
Options Good Economic
Growth
Moderate Economic
Growth
Lower Economic
Growth’
Mauti Suzuki Shares 3,00,000 1,20,000 50,000
TATA Motor Shares 4,00,000 1,00,000 10,000
D Mart shares 4,50,000 2,30,000 30,000
If you were in place of Mukulbhai Gadhecha, What do you recommend to Mr. Saproo?
Note: You are not allowed to use any software for the calculation. But for the preparation of
Decision tree diagram you are advised to use Software like MS -Word, PowerPoint etc.
(10 Marks)
Q2. Draw the appropriate chart using MS EXCEL, also carryout Exponential Smoothing model
in MS EXCEL for the given Alpha values, copy the results (from EXCEL to Word) and explain
which alpha is relatively better for the forecast. In this journey of identification of relatively
better way of forecasting you may take the support of MAD and MSE type of errors. Suggested
Alpha values are 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9. (10 Marks)
NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for December 2023 Examination
Yield of
Groundnut
(Kg./hectare)
2000-01 977
2001-02 1127
2002-03 694
2003-04 1357
2004-05 1020
2005-06 1187
2006-07 866
2007-08 1459
2008-09 1163
2009-10 991
2010-11 1411
2011-12 1323
2012-13 995
2013-14 1764
2014-15 1552
2015-16 1465
2016-17 1398
2017-18 1893
2018-19 1422
2019-20 2063
2020-21 1703
2021-22 1758
Data Source: RBI
Q3. A) You are not advised to use Software in this case, show the calculation-steps typed in
your MS-word file.
In Roshni lights ( manufacturer of Mirchi lights) A production run of 2000 set of Mirchi lights
being tested for the life, the data shows that life is normally distributed with an average life
span of 90 days and a standard deviation of 10 days. What is the probability if a set of Mirchi
lights randomly selected from that lot, survived up to 100 days? (5 Marks)
NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for December 2023 Examination
Q3 B) Draw an appropriate chart to show the contribution of each category (in percent form)
of Micro, small and medium Enterprises (MSMEs) at the state level. (You may use the MS
EXCEL). In conclusion also write, why you have chosen this graph for this problem?
(5 Marks)
StateName DistrictName Total
MSMEs
Micro Small Medium
UTTARAKHAND ALMORA 1235 1068 150 17
UTTARAKHAND BAGESHWAR 838 807 29 2
UTTARAKHAND CHAMOLI 739 688 49 2
UTTARAKHAND CHAMPAWAT 802 745 55 2
UTTARAKHAND DEHRADUN 12605 10600 1909 96
UTTARAKHAND HARIDWAR 8883 6416 2263 204
UTTARAKHAND NAINITAL 3752 3003 675 74
UTTARAKHAND PAURI GARHWAL 4955 4678 264 13
UTTARAKHAND PITHORAGARH 1061 962 95 4
UTTARAKHAND RUDRA PRAYAG 740 698 37 5
UTTARAKHAND TEHRI GARHWAL 1399 1227 162 10
UTTARAKHAND UDHAM SINGH
NAGAR
9746 7767 1839 140
UTTARAKHAND UTTARKASHI 1114 1002 111 1
Data source: OGD
***********